Green Global
Foundation   Journal
...an emerging window for scientific research and publication across the globe

ESTIMATING THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE PRODUCTION: A STUDY FROM MYMENSINGH DISTRICT OF BANGLADESH USING QUANTILE REGRESSION METHOD (Pages : 1 - 7)

This paper examines the influence of ten climatic variables on rice production during 1976 to 2012 of Mymensingh district of Bangladesh. The effect of climate changes on rice production is increasingly evident through movements of climatic variables. Whereas there are empirical studies that examine this issue with parametric approaches focusing on the “mean” level of variables. Quantification of this impact is necessary in order to better understand these changes. Given this paucity, it was characterized the effect on rice production distribution with a more robust non-parametric approach. Employing 37 years of data, it was applied quantile regressions to untangle the climatic impacts across the quantiles of rice production. As well as, the climatic parameters like air pressure (mbs), air temperature (°C), dew point (°C), humidity (%), rainfall (mm), wind speed (kmph), sunshine (hrs.), evaporation (mm), water temperature (°C) and soil temperature at 20 cm depth (°C) were significantly changing over the periods at different selected quantiles of the distributions. Using Quantile regression, it was found the evidence that, rice production responds differently to climatic variables across the different quantiles of rice production distribution. And selected climatic variables were significantly affecting the rice production both positively and negatively which is causing substantial economic loss for the local farmers. So, immediate policy implication like- more adaptive research to develop suitable rice verities, income generating activities and development project is needed to apply in the study area to reduce the economic loss due to the hazards of climate change.Download